Miami Marlins at New York Mets: Final Score & Recap

The Miami Marlins took a 3-2 decision over the New York Mets at Citi Field on August 18, 2024, handing the home side a loss despite the DiamondIQ model's estimate placing New York's pre-game win probability at 68 percent. Miami scratched out runs in the third, seventh, and eighth innings while holding the Mets to single tallies in the fifth and sixth, finishing with eight hits and no errors against nine hits and no errors for New York.

The game turned on a pair of pivotal moments that the DiamondIQ model registered as the largest probability swings of the night. In the bottom of the eighth, with the Mets threatening to change the outcome, J.D. Martinez grounded into a double play off Declan Cronin, collapsing New York's win probability by 24.2 percent and effectively pulling the rug from under a potential rally. That sequence elevated Cronin to the top pitching performer by win-probability added at plus-24.2 percent. On the offensive side, Derek Hill's single in the top of the eighth off Phil Maton added 14.1 percent to Miami's win probability and helped set the table for what became an insurance run. Brandon Nimmo's home run off Valente Bellozo in the bottom of the sixth was the brightest Mets moment, adding 13.8 percent from New York's perspective, but it was not enough to sustain a comeback.

Among position players, Jose Iglesias led all batters with a WPA of plus-22.4 percent and an RE24 of plus-1.3, while Derek Hill finished at plus-16.0 percent WPA and Xavier Edwards contributed plus-14.2 percent WPA alongside a plus-0.8 RE24. Calvin Faucher closed the ninth for Miami, and while Mark Vientos' strikeout shifted win probability 19.0 percent in the Marlins' favor, Jeff McNeil's subsequent strikeout moved it 16.6 percent in the opposite direction before Faucher ultimately secured the final out. Jesus Tinoco and Reed Garrett also contributed on the mound, adding plus-9.7 and plus-9.3 percent respectively to Miami's win-probability ledger.