Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Orioles: Final Score & Recap

The Baltimore Orioles defeated the Boston Red Sox 5-1 on August 15, 2024, at Oriole Park at Camden Yards, a result the DiamondIQ model's estimate tracked closely after opening with a 61 percent pre-game home win probability and closing at 100 percent. Baltimore's offense did its damage in concentrated bursts through the middle innings, while Boston's lone run proved far too little to mount any real threat.

The game's decisive sequence began in the bottom of the fourth, when Gunnar Henderson launched a home run off Nick Pivetta that shifted the DiamondIQ model's estimate by 18.7 percent in Baltimore's favor, the single largest win-probability swing of the contest. Boston had briefly drawn attention in the top of that same inning, when Wilyer Abreu connected for a solo home run off Zach Eflin for a swing of plus 11.3 percent, but the Red Sox were unable to build on it. Cedric Mullins added to the damage in the fifth, hitting another home run off Pivetta for a 10.6 percent swing, effectively putting the game out of reach. Boston's best chance to claw back came in the top of the seventh, where Ceddanne Rafaela singled off Gregory Soto for a modest 5.2 percent uptick, but Romy Gonzalez immediately erased that momentum by grounding into a double play, a swing of negative 11.8 percent that closed the door.

Henderson led all position players with a WPA of plus 15.5 percent and an RE24 of plus 1.8, while Mullins added plus 14.1 percent WPA and a plus 1.1 RE24. Abreu was Boston's lone bright spot, finishing with a WPA of plus 8.1 percent and an RE24 of plus 1.0. On the mound, Burch Smith and Zach Eflin were the top contributors for Baltimore by WPA, with Smith's plus 11.8 percent largely tied to inducing the Gonzalez double play and Eflin posting plus 11.4 percent despite surrendering the Abreu homer.