Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies: Final Score & Recap

The Miami Marlins handed the Philadelphia Phillies a 5-0 shutout at Citizens Bank Park on August 13, 2024, a result that reflected just how completely the game defied pre-game expectations. The DiamondIQ model's estimate had Philadelphia entering with a 73% win probability, a figure that collapsed to 0% by the final out as Miami's pitching staff suppressed the Phillies offense to just four hits across nine innings.

The decisive stretch came early, when Valente Bellozo methodically dismantled Philadelphia's best chances to score. In the bottom of the first, Alec Bohm lined out in a spot that cost the Phillies 11.0% in win probability, and J.T. Realmuto followed in the second with a lineout that erased another 11.5%, the single biggest probability swing of the game. Those two outs alone represented Philadelphia's clearest opportunities to get on the board, and Bellozo extinguished both. Meanwhile, Miami built its lead incrementally, scoring two in the first and adding single runs in the third, seventh, and ninth. Jake Burger's home run off Taijuan Walker in the top of the third added 8.5% to Miami's win probability and pushed the Phillies into a deepening deficit they never threatened to escape.

Bellozo was the unambiguous catalyst, finishing with a staggering +51.5% WPA that accounted for the bulk of the probability swing on its own. Among Miami's position players, Vidal Bruján led with +9.3% WPA, followed by Xavier Edwards at +8.1% WPA, each contributing in ways that sustained Miami's early pressure against Walker. Philadelphia's two errors compounded their troubles, and the final line — Miami's eight hits against Philadelphia's four, with a clean fielding sheet for the Marlins — told the story of a road team that controlled Citizens Bank Park from the opening inning.