Baltimore Orioles at Tampa Bay Rays: Final Score & Recap

The Baltimore Orioles defeated the Tampa Bay Rays 7-5 on August 10, 2024, at Tropicana Field, collecting 15 hits in a game that swung dramatically in the eighth inning. The DiamondIQ model's estimate opened with Tampa Bay holding a 45 percent chance of winning at home, a figure that eroded steadily before collapsing to zero by the final out.

The decisive moment came in the top of the eighth when Ramón Urías launched a home run off Colin Poche, a swing that shifted win probability by 26.9 percent in Baltimore's favor and effectively broke the game open. The Rays had shown signs of life — José Caballero hit a home run off Burch Smith in the bottom of the seventh to add 18.1 percent to Tampa Bay's odds, and Jose Siri drew a walk off Cionel Pérez in the eighth that added 13.5 percent — but Caballero's flyout to end the bottom of the eighth, which swung 20.9 percent back toward Baltimore, extinguished the rally. Jonny DeLuca's double off Corbin Burnes in the fifth had also kept Tampa Bay relevant at plus-12.3 percent, though the Orioles had built a 4-0 lead through two innings before the Rays responded in the fifth with three runs of their own.

Among individual contributors, Urías was the standout performer by the model's accounting, finishing at plus-24.9 percent WPA and plus-1.4 RE24. Siri was Tampa Bay's most impactful bat at plus-13.5 percent WPA and plus-1.0 RE24, while Gunnar Henderson contributed plus-7.2 percent WPA for Baltimore. On the mound, Garrett Cleavinger led all pitchers with plus-12.0 percent WPA, followed by starter Corbin Burnes at plus-8.9 percent and Yennier Cano at plus-2.5 percent, a trio that collectively held the Rays' offense in check when it mattered most.