Cleveland Guardians at Minnesota Twins: Final Score & Recap

The Minnesota Twins defeated the Cleveland Guardians 6-3 on August 9, 2024, at Target Field, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate moving from a 53 percent pre-game home win probability all the way to 100 percent by the game's end. The contest was relatively tight through four innings before a chaotic fifth defined the outcome. Cleveland briefly seized momentum when Josh Naylor launched a home run off Louis Varland, a swing that added 33.1 percent to the Guardians' win probability and momentarily flipped the complexion of the game. Minnesota answered emphatically in the bottom half, however, as Matt Wallner connected on a home run off Alex Cobb that produced a 35.0 percent win-probability swing in Minnesota's favor, neutralizing Naylor's blast and restoring the Twins' advantage for good. A José Ramírez flyout in that same fifth inning, costing Cleveland 6.6 percent in win probability against Varland, further illustrated how the frame swung decisively toward the home side.

Beyond the fifth, Austin Martin contributed with a sixth-inning single off Cobb in the second that added 6.4 percent to Minnesota's win probability, while Jose F. Miranda's pop-out in the seventh, surrendering just 6.5 percent back to the Guardians, reflected how thoroughly the Twins had locked things down. Wallner finished as the game's top performer by WPA at plus-33.9 percent with a RE24 of plus-2.6, while Naylor led Cleveland's efforts at plus-28.0 percent WPA and plus-2.1 RE24. Out of the bullpen, Caleb Thielbar led all pitchers with plus-11.7 percent WPA, followed by Cole Sands at plus-10.3 percent, as Minnesota's relief corps held the Guardians to no runs after the fifth inning to preserve the three-run victory.