Arizona Diamondbacks at Cleveland Guardians: Final Score & Recap

The Arizona Diamondbacks knocked off the Cleveland Guardians 5-3 at Progressive Field on August 6, 2024, handing the home side a loss despite Cleveland entering with a 58 percent pre-game win probability according to the DiamondIQ model's estimate. Arizona seized control early and never surrendered the lead, building their margin through a pair of decisive long balls before Cleveland's late attempts to rally fell short.

The game's most impactful offensive moment came in the top of the third, when Josh Bell connected on a home run off Carlos Carrasco, a swing that shifted win probability by plus-16.9 percent in Arizona's favor. Randal Grichuk extended the Diamondbacks' cushion with a solo shot off Nick Sandlin in the top of the seventh, adding another plus-13.4 percent swing. Cleveland's most significant response arrived in the bottom of the sixth, when José Ramírez went deep off Eduardo Rodriguez for a plus-13.8 percent shift, but the Guardians could not generate the additional damage necessary to complete a comeback. Strikeouts by Josh Naylor in the eighth against Joe Mantiply and Bo Naylor in the ninth against Justin Martinez effectively sealed Cleveland's fate, representing negative swings of 9.7 and 9.5 percent respectively.

Bell led all position players with a WPA of plus-18.5 percent and an RE24 of plus-2.3, making him the game's most consequential offensive contributor. Grichuk followed at plus-12.9 percent WPA, while Lane Thomas contributed a plus-9.8 percent mark despite a negative RE24 of minus-0.5. Arizona's bullpen carried much of the burden in the final innings, with Tim Herrin, Kevin Ginkel, and Mantiply each posting WPA figures above plus-9.5 percent, collectively ensuring that Cleveland's 58 percent pre-game probability translated into a zero percent final figure.