Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees: Final Score & Recap

The Boston Red Sox shut out the New York Yankees 3-0 at Yankee Stadium on July 7, 2024, a result that erased what the DiamondIQ model's estimate had been a 59 percent pre-game home win probability for New York, driving it to zero by the final out. The game was a tightly pitched, scoreless affair through six innings before Boston broke through in the seventh and never looked back, with all three runs arriving via the long ball.

Rafael Devers delivered the decisive blow first, connecting for a home run off Luis Gil in the top of the seventh for a swing worth plus 16.5 percent in win probability, the single most impactful offensive play of the contest. The Yankees briefly generated their most threatening response in the bottom half of that inning, as Juan Soto reached on a double off Kutter Crawford for a plus 10.6 percent swing, but Aaron Judge's subsequent strikeout against Crawford erased 7.5 percent of that momentum and left New York's rally stalled. Trent Grisham had already helped Crawford escape earlier trouble with a double play in the sixth that swung win probability 10.2 percent against the Yankees' own batting effort. Ceddanne Rafaela then iced the game with a home run off Luke Weaver in the top of the eighth, a plus 18.0 percent swing that effectively closed the door.

Crawford was the standout performer of the night by any measure, posting a plus 43.3 percent WPA figure that reflected his ability to strand threats repeatedly across his outing. Devers led Boston's position players at plus 21.4 percent WPA and plus 2.3 RE24, while Rafaela added plus 9.7 percent WPA and Oswaldo Cabrera contributed plus 8.9 percent WPA in support. Luis Gil, who surrendered the Devers homer, still earned a plus 14.1 percent WPA credit on the pitching side, suggesting his overall line held some value despite the critical mistake, while Justin Slaten added plus 13.3 percent WPA in relief work for Boston.