Boston Red Sox at Miami Marlins: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 12 | 1 |
| MIA | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
The Story
The Boston Red Sox handed the Miami Marlins a 7-2 defeat at loanDepot park on July 3, 2024, a result the DiamondIQ model's estimate made increasingly inevitable as the game progressed. Miami entered with a 35 percent pre-game win probability that collapsed to zero by the final out. Boston struck first in the third inning, where the two most consequential offensive plays of the game unfolded in sequence. Rafael Devers delivered a single off Trevor Rogers that shifted win probability by plus 13.6 percent, and Masataka Yoshida followed with a single of his own worth plus 8.5 percent, building an early cushion that Marlins pitching never recovered from. A seventh-inning run and a four-run ninth-inning burst sealed a performance that was both methodical and decisive across the line score.
The pitching side of the ledger told an equally clear story. Brayan Bello led all pitchers with a plus 19.3 percent WPA contribution, commanding the game and limiting Miami's offense throughout his outing. Huascar Brazobán entered in relief but the damage extended on his watch, most notably when Ceddanne Rafaela laced a triple off him in the sixth that added 8.8 percent to Boston's win probability. Chris Martin further locked down the Marlins in the eighth, finishing with plus 13.3 percent WPA, aided in part by Jake Burger's lineout that cost Miami 7.4 percent of their remaining win probability. The Marlins' nine hits were ultimately decorative given how thoroughly Boston's pitching staff contained any genuine threat.
Devers finished as the game's top overall performer by WPA at plus 16.1 percent alongside a plus 2.9 RE24, making him the clearest individual driver of the outcome. Yoshida contributed plus 11.0 percent WPA and plus 1.2 RE24, cementing the middle of the Boston order as the engine of the offense. Jesús Sánchez provided Miami's lone bright spot in that category with plus 6.6 percent WPA and plus 1.1 RE24, though the model's estimate never gave the Marlins a credible path back after the third inning. Boston's 12 hits spread the damage efficiently, and the Red Sox left South Florida with a thoroughly complete road victory.