Tampa Bay Rays at Kansas City Royals: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TB | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| KC | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | - | 4 | 7 | 2 |
The Story
The Kansas City Royals defeated the Tampa Bay Rays 4-2 at Kauffman Stadium on July 3, 2024, a result the DiamondIQ model anticipated from the outset, setting a pre-game home win probability of 58% that climbed steadily to 100% by the final out. Kansas City scored in three separate innings, plating two in the third, two more in the seventh, while Tampa Bay managed single runs in the first and eighth but never seriously threatened to take control.
The decisive sequences came in the third and seventh innings. Bobby Witt Jr. drove a double off Ryan Pepiot in the bottom of the third, a swing that shifted win probability by 12.5 percentage points, and Vinnie Pasquantino followed with a run-scoring single off the same pitcher, adding another 8.8 points. Kansas City then put the game away in the seventh when Salvador Perez lined a single off Shawn Armstrong, the single largest probability swing of the night at plus 18.6 points, pushing the Royals to a lead that Tampa Bay could not answer. On the other side of the ledger, Yandy Díaz struck out against John Schreiber in the top of the seventh, costing the Rays 7.9 points of win probability, and Richie Palacios popped out to James McArthur in the eighth, a minus 8.1-point swing that effectively closed the door.
Michael Wacha led all pitchers with a game-high 19.8 WPA, while James McArthur added 15.2 and Edwin Uceta contributed 10.3, collectively suffocating a Tampa Bay offense that finished with just five hits. Among position players, Witt Jr. topped the offensive leaderboard at plus 17.8 WPA and plus 1.6 RE24, followed by Perez at plus 13.7 WPA and Royals catcher Ben Rortvedt at plus 13.1 WPA, making Kansas City's victory a thorough team effort on both sides of the ball.