San Diego Padres at Texas Rangers: Final Score & Recap

The San Diego Padres defeated the Texas Rangers 6-4 at Globe Life Field on July 3, 2024, handing the home side a loss the DiamondIQ model's estimate saw coming by the final out, with Texas finishing at zero percent win probability after entering the night as a modest 47 percent favorite. San Diego put up all the runs it needed across three separate innings, with the decisive blow arriving in the seventh when David Peralta launched a home run off Dane Dunning that shifted win probability 26.7 percent in the Padres' favor. The game's early turning point came in the third inning, where Manny Machado's home run off Jon Gray added 20.0 percent to San Diego's win probability, though Texas answered in the bottom half when Corey Seager's double off Adam Mazur swung the needle 12.3 percent back toward the Rangers.

Peralta finished as the game's top performer by WPA at plus 14.7 percent with a RE24 of plus 0.6, while Jackson Merrill contributed a plus 8.8 percent WPA and a plus 0.6 RE24, including a key fifth-inning single off José Leclerc that added 11.7 percent to San Diego's chances. Jake Cronenworth also factored in at plus 7.8 percent WPA and a plus 0.4 RE24. Out of the San Diego bullpen, Adrian Morejon led all pitchers with a plus 12.6 percent WPA, supported by Yuki Matsui at plus 8.3 percent and Jeremiah Estrada at plus 5.9 percent. Texas made a final push in the ninth, but Marcus Semien's groundout against Robert Suarez, which added 14.4 percent to San Diego's win probability by ending any remaining threat, closed out a thorough Padres road victory.