New York Mets at Washington Nationals: Final Score & Recap

The Washington Nationals defeated the New York Mets 7-5 at Nationals Park on July 3, 2024, in a game that swung decisively in the home team's favor over the final three innings. The DiamondIQ model opened with Washington holding a narrow 51 percent pre-game win probability, but by game's end that figure had climbed to 100 percent as the Nationals strung together the decisive damage against the Mets bullpen.

The Mets built an early lead on the strength of Mark Vientos, whose fourth-inning home run off Mitchell Parker represented a swing of plus-18.5 percent in win probability and stood as the most impactful offensive moment for New York all night. The Nationals answered emphatically in the sixth, when Luis García Jr. connected on a home run off Christian Scott that shifted win probability by plus-28.2 percent — the single largest play of the game by that measure. García Jr. added a second home run in the eighth off Ty Adcock, worth another plus-13.6 percent, finishing with a combined WPA of plus-43.5 and an RE24 of plus-4.0, making him the clear offensive catalyst for Washington. Lane Thomas contributed a key double off Jake Diekman in the seventh that swung win probability by plus-19.9 percent, and James Wood followed with a single off the same pitcher worth plus-15.4 percent, effectively closing the door on any Mets comeback.

On the pitching side, Washington's relief corps preserved the lead without incident. Adam Ottavino led the staff with a plus-9.3 percent WPA contribution, followed by Jacob Barnes at plus-6.6 percent and Kyle Finnegan at plus-6.3 percent. The Mets managed just five hits without an error, but their inability to generate offense after the fourth inning allowed Washington to pull away steadily through the game's final frames. The DiamondIQ model favors the Nationals' performance in this one as a function of García Jr.'s two-homer effort and a bullpen that held its advantage when it mattered most.