MLB Recap · June 28, 2024

Texas Rangers at Baltimore Orioles: Final Score & Recap

TEX1
Final
BAL2

Line Score

Team123456789RHE
TEX000000100141
BAL00011000-250

The Story

The Baltimore Orioles defeated the Texas Rangers 2-1 at Oriole Park at Camden Yards on June 28, 2024, in a tight, low-scoring affair that the DiamondIQ model had heavily favored from the outset, assigning Baltimore a 71% pre-game win probability that climbed to 100% by the final out. Baltimore plated its first run in the fourth inning on a solo home run by Colton Cowser off Max Scherzer, a swing that shifted win probability by 11.8 points and proved to be the game's most consequential offensive moment for the home side. The Orioles added another run in the fifth to take a 2-0 lead, and that cushion held until Texas managed its lone run in the seventh.

The seventh inning was where the Rangers made their most credible threat and where the game's largest individual win-probability swings were concentrated. Leody Taveras drew a walk off Jacob Webb that added 16.3 points of win probability to the Texas side, representing the single biggest positive batting play of the night for the Rangers. But the rally stalled badly as Marcus Semien grounded out for a swing of negative 13.5 points and Jonah Heim struck out for another negative 11.0 points, leaving Texas unable to fully capitalize. Robbie Grossman's strikeout against Cionel Pérez in the eighth, costing the Rangers another 9.8 points of win probability, effectively extinguished any remaining hope of a comeback.

On the pitching side, Albert Suárez led all pitchers with a WPA contribution of plus 18.2 points, while Craig Kimbrel added 15.2 points and Pérez contributed 10.8, forming a bullpen combination that shut the door on a Rangers lineup that finished with just four hits and an error. Among batters, Cowser led Baltimore with a WPA of plus 15.9, while Taveras paced Texas at plus 14.8 despite the Rangers' loss, and Wyatt Langford added plus 13.5 for the visiting side in a losing effort.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025TEX bats firstFinalBAL win %TEX win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 71.2% → final 100%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Leody Taveras Walk
Top 7th · off Jacob Webb
+16.3%
Marcus Semien Groundout
Top 7th · off Jacob Webb
-13.5%
Colton Cowser Home Run
Bot 4th · off Max Scherzer
+11.8%
Jonah Heim Strikeout
Top 7th · off Jacob Webb
-11.0%
Robbie Grossman Strikeout
Top 8th · off Cionel Pérez
-9.8%

Top Batters by WPA

Colton Cowser+15.9%+0.4 RE24
Leody Taveras+14.8%+1.2 RE24
Wyatt Langford+13.5%+0.7 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

Full box score, pitch data, and the play-by-play timeline
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