San Diego Padres at Boston Red Sox: Final Score & Recap

The San Diego Padres rolled to a 9-2 victory over the Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park on June 28, 2024, erasing what the DiamondIQ model had estimated as a 54 percent pre-game home win probability for Boston and driving it to zero by the final out. The game was largely scoreless through four innings, with Connor Wong's single off Randy Vásquez in the bottom of the fourth providing Boston's lone bright spot in that stretch, followed shortly by a Wilyer Abreu single that added 6.8 percent to the Red Sox's win probability and briefly kept the home side within reach. Those contributions, however, were quickly overshadowed by a catastrophic fifth inning for Boston's pitching staff.

The fifth inning was where the game was decided in decisive fashion. Kyle Higashioka delivered the killing blow against Nick Pivetta, a home run that swung the win probability 19.7 percent in San Diego's favor and effectively ended the competitive portion of the evening. A Bryce Johnson double off Pivetta added another 6.6 percent, and when Greg Weissert came on in relief, Jake Cronenworth greeted him with a single worth 8.9 percent in win probability. By the time the inning was finished, San Diego had hung nine runs on the board in that frame alone, turning a tight game into a rout.

Among the game's top performers by the DiamondIQ model's metrics, Higashioka led all batters with a WPA of plus-17.2 and an RE24 of plus-1.4, making his fifth-inning home run the single most consequential offensive act of the night. Luis Arraez contributed a WPA of plus-7.3, while Abreu finished at plus-6.2 despite a slightly negative RE24 of minus-0.1. On the pitching side, Randy Vásquez led San Diego's staff with a WPA of plus-4.8, a reflection of his ability to limit damage during Boston's fourth-inning response before the Padres offense took full control.