Tampa Bay Rays at Pittsburgh Pirates: Final Score & Recap

The Pittsburgh Pirates held off the Tampa Bay Rays 4-3 at PNC Park on June 22, 2024, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate opening at a 55 percent home win probability and closing at 100 percent by game's end. The decisive stretch came in the bottom of the third inning, where Pittsburgh built its winning margin against Zach Eflin. Andrew McCutchen's triple carried a win-probability swing of plus 7.6 percent, and Rowdy Tellez followed with a single that added another plus 10.0 percent, the single largest positive swing of the game. That three-run third gave the Pirates a cushion they would ultimately protect through nine innings despite Tampa Bay's persistent attempts to chip away.

The Rays made their most credible threat in the top of the ninth against Aroldis Chapman. Yandy Díaz opened the inning with a double that swung win probability plus 8.5 percent in Tampa Bay's favor, creating genuine late-game tension. However, Isaac Paredes grounded out to end the inning, a play that represented the game's single largest win-probability shift at minus 10.9 percent, effectively closing the door on the Rays' rally. Ben Rortvedt had also provided a brief moment of hope for Tampa Bay in the fourth with a single worth plus 7.6 percent off Jared Jones, but Pittsburgh's pitching staff ultimately contained the damage.

Among the standout performers by the DiamondIQ model's metrics, Jared Jones led all pitchers with a plus 21.6 percent WPA, underscoring his impact in keeping Tampa Bay's offense in check across his innings of work. Colin Holderman and Aroldis Chapman added plus 8.1 and plus 6.3 percent respectively as the bullpen finished the job. On the offensive side, Tellez paced Pirates batters at plus 7.3 percent WPA with a plus 0.7 RE24, while Oneil Cruz contributed plus 6.5 percent WPA and led position players with a plus 1.2 RE24, reflecting his overall run-environment impact throughout the contest.