Baltimore Orioles at Houston Astros: Final Score & Recap

The Houston Astros defeated the Baltimore Orioles 5-1 on June 22, 2024, at Minute Maid Park, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a Houston win climbing from 37% before first pitch all the way to 100% by the final out. The Astros built their lead methodically across the middle innings, and the game was never seriously in doubt after Houston seized control through a series of damaging at-bats against Orioles starter Corbin Burnes.

The decisive swings came largely at Burnes's expense. Yordan Alvarez's third-inning home run was the single most impactful play of the game, shifting win probability by 18.9 percentage points and representing the moment Houston fully took command. Chas McCormick added to the damage in the fifth inning with a home run of his own, a swing worth 8.7 percentage points of win probability, while a Yainer Diaz triple in the second had already begun eroding Baltimore's footing with a 6.7-point swing. Baltimore's lone genuine threat materialized in the seventh, when Cedric Mullins tripled off Ronel Blanco to produce a 6.4-point positive swing for the Orioles, but Colton Cowser's lineout immediately following erased that momentum and swung probability 5.6 points back toward Houston.

On the individual ledger, Alvarez finished as the game's top offensive contributor with a WPA of plus-20.4 and an RE24 of plus-1.4, while McCormick posted plus-14.4 WPA and a game-high RE24 of plus-2.4. Mullins was Baltimore's lone bright spot at plus-7.1 WPA. On the mound, Ronel Blanco was dominant, generating plus-30.0 WPA while holding Baltimore in check through the critical middle innings, with Ryan Pressly and Josh Hader closing out the final frames to complete Houston's wire-to-wire control of the contest.