Boston Red Sox at Toronto Blue Jays: Final Score & Recap

The Boston Red Sox edged the Toronto Blue Jays 4-3 at Rogers Centre on June 18, 2024, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate opening the game at a near-even 49% home win probability before Boston's late surge pushed it to zero in favor of the visitors. The Red Sox trailed entering the eighth inning before manufacturing the decisive cushion through a two-run outburst. Ceddanne Rafaela's single off Chad Green shifted win probability by 20.3 points in Boston's favor, and Tyler O'Neill followed with a home run off Brendon Little that added another 18.6 points, giving the Red Sox the separation they needed. Toronto's best chance to respond came in the bottom half of the eighth, but Alejandro Kirk's pop out off Justin Slaten erased 16.5 points of Blue Jays win probability and effectively ended their most dangerous rally.

Kenley Jansen closed out the ninth for Boston, and the game's single largest win-probability swing came on his strikeout of Danny Jansen in the bottom of the ninth, a 31.6-point shift that sealed the result. By the DiamondIQ model's estimate, that at-bat alone represented the contest's defining moment. Ceddanne Rafaela finished as the game's top performer by win-probability added, accumulating plus-35.1% WPA and a RE24 of plus-1.8, while Tyler O'Neill contributed plus-12.5% WPA. On the pitching side, Justin Slaten led all pitchers with plus-16.5% WPA, followed by Chris Bassitt at plus-8.7% and Brennan Bernardino at plus-6.8%, as the Red Sox bullpen preserved the one-run lead through the final frames.