Cleveland Guardians at Toronto Blue Jays: Final Score & Recap

Toronto rallied past Cleveland 7-6 at Rogers Centre on June 16, 2024, in a game that turned decisively in the fifth inning after the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a home win stood at just 39% before first pitch and climbed to 100% by the final out. The Blue Jays trailed through four frames before erupting for five runs in the bottom of the fifth, with Daulton Varsho delivering the game's single most impactful swing — a home run off Nick Sandlin that added 20.9% to Toronto's win probability and functionally broke the game open. Cleveland had briefly threatened to seize momentum of their own in that same inning, as Steven Kwan's single off José Berríos registered a +11.4% WPA shift for the Guardians before the Blue Jays answered emphatically. Ernie Clement had staked Toronto to an early cushion with a home run off Ben Lively in the second inning worth +11.6% WPA, and Daniel Schneemann added a solo shot off Berríos in the sixth for another +7.7% swing.

Cleveland mounted a late push that fell short, with the Guardians pushing across two runs in both the fifth and ninth innings to finish with six on 13 hits. The most telling moment of their rally came in the top of the ninth when Andrés Giménez lined out against Nate Pearson, a sequence that carried a -12.7% WPA for Cleveland and effectively closed the door. Pearson earned the top pitching mark of the night at +12.7% WPA for his shutdown work, while Chad Green and Brendon Little contributed +5.0% and +4.5% respectively in support. On the offensive side, Varsho led all players at +22.0% WPA and +1.3 RE24, Kwan finished at +16.8% WPA and +1.6 RE24, and Schneemann posted the game's best RE24 mark among position players at +2.4 alongside his +14.2% WPA. The DiamondIQ model favors Toronto's bullpen management as the decisive factor in preserving a lead that Cleveland's lineup, despite generating 13 hits, could never fully erase.