Miami Marlins at Washington Nationals: Final Score & Recap

The Washington Nationals shut out the Miami Marlins 4-0 on June 15, 2024, at Nationals Park, moving the DiamondIQ model's pre-game home win probability estimate from 69 percent all the way to 100 percent by the final out. Washington's pitching staff controlled the game from the start, with starter DJ Herz leading all players with a WPA of plus-20.8 percent, the largest single-player contribution of the night. Trevor Rogers started for Miami and absorbed a damaging blow in the third inning when Lane Thomas connected on a home run that added 10.2 percent to Washington's win probability, a swing that proved to be the game's first decisive moment and part of Thomas's overall WPA of plus-8.8 percent on the night.

Miami's most meaningful threat materialized in the top of the eighth, though it ultimately came to nothing. Otto Lopez drew a walk off Hunter Harvey that briefly added 9.6 percent to the Marlins' win probability, and Jesús Sánchez followed with a single worth 7.1 percent, creating a moment of genuine uncertainty. However, Tim Anderson's strikeout against Harvey erased 14.3 percent of Miami's win probability in a single at-bat, effectively extinguishing the rally. Washington then answered in the bottom half when Joey Meneses deposited a two-run home run off Andrew Nardi, a blow worth plus-6.9 percent that sealed the outcome.

On the statistical ledger, Herz's plus-20.8 WPA headlined a dominant collective pitching performance that held Miami to four hits and no runs across nine innings. Joey Meneses posted the strongest RE24 among batters at plus-1.4, reflecting the situational weight of his eighth-inning blast, while Lane Thomas and Otto Lopez rounded out Washington's top offensive contributors. The Marlins, despite putting four runners on base at various points, were unable to convert a single run against a Nationals staff that tightened at every critical juncture.