Cleveland Guardians at Cincinnati Reds: Final Score & Recap

The Cincinnati Reds defeated the Cleveland Guardians 4-2 at Great American Ball Park on June 12, 2024, completing a comeback that the DiamondIQ model's estimate tracked from a 37 percent pre-game home win probability all the way to 100 percent by the final out. Cincinnati managed just six hits but found the decisive blow at exactly the right moment, turning a tight, low-scoring affair into a comfortable final margin.

The swing of the game arrived in the bottom of the sixth inning, when Jeimer Candelario connected for a home run off Tanner Bibee, a single swing that added 35.7 percent to Cincinnati's win probability and effectively settled the outcome. Candelario finished as the game's most impactful offensive player with a WPA of plus-34.4 and a RE24 of plus-3.6. Josh Naylor contributed meaningfully as well, finishing with a WPA of plus-14.1 to rank second among all batters. Cleveland had generated some early traction when David Fry drew a walk off Nick Lodolo in the top of the third, a plate appearance worth plus-10.1 in win probability, but Cleveland hitters repeatedly failed to convert opportunities, with Brayan Rocchio's forceout and Andrés Giménez's groundout each costing the Guardians roughly eight percent in win probability in those same early frames.

On the mound, Nick Lodolo headlined Cincinnati's pitching effort with a WPA of plus-13.6, repeatedly extinguishing Cleveland threats despite the occasional baserunner. Sam Moll added plus-8.1 and Lucas Sims contributed plus-7.2 out of the bullpen, collectively holding the Guardians to two runs across nine innings and preserving Candelario's go-ahead blast as the definitive moment of the game.