Chicago Cubs at Tampa Bay Rays: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| TB | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 8 | 1 |
The Story
The Tampa Bay Rays defeated the Chicago Cubs 5-2 on June 11, 2024, at Tropicana Field in a game that remained tightly contested through eight innings before an explosive Rays ninth inning decided the outcome. The DiamondIQ model opened with a 54 percent home win probability for Tampa Bay, a figure that held relatively stable through most of the contest before swinging to 100 percent by game's end. The Cubs had taken a 2-1 lead into the bottom of the ninth, with Chicago managing 10 hits but failing to convert them into a more commanding cushion.
The decisive sequence came entirely in the bottom of the ninth against Cubs reliever Héctor Neris, who surrendered four runs without recording an out in what amounted to the game's entire margin of difference. Richie Palacios opened the inning with a double that added 25.1 percentage points of win probability, immediately putting the Cubs' lead in jeopardy. Brandon Lowe then delivered the knockout blow with a home run off Neris, a swing worth plus-37.9 percentage points of win probability and the single largest WPA event of the game. José Caballero followed with a single that added another 37.8 percentage points, extending the Rays' advantage and rendering the outcome effectively final. Jose Siri's strikeout against Neris in that same frame was the inning's only check on momentum, costing Tampa Bay 16.6 percentage points, but it proved inconsequential.
On the pitching side, Jameson Taillon was the game's top performer by WPA, contributing plus-32.4 percentage points for the Rays, while Hayden Wesneski added plus-20.0 percentage points in relief for Chicago before Yandy Díaz drew a walk against him in the seventh that shifted win probability 13.6 points in Tampa Bay's favor. By batter WPA, Caballero and Lowe anchored the Rays' offensive effort, with Lowe also posting the game's top RE24 mark among position players at plus-1.6, reflecting the direct run-scoring impact of his decisive ninth-inning home run.