New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies: Final Score & Recap

The New York Mets overcame a 77 percent pre-game win probability against them to defeat the Philadelphia Phillies 6-5 at London Stadium on June 9, 2024, completing a late rally that erased what the DiamondIQ model had projected as a heavy Phillies advantage throughout most of the contest. Philadelphia carried a lead into the final frames, but New York's offense unraveled that edge with decisive contributions in the sixth and ninth innings, swinging the model's estimate from a comfortable Philadelphia position all the way to zero percent by the final out.

The turning point began in the top of the sixth, when J.D. Martinez delivered a single off Gregory Soto that generated a 23.8 percent win-probability swing, pulling the Mets back into contention after the Phillies had built a two-run cushion through four innings. New York then seized the lead outright with a three-run ninth inning against José Alvarado that featured three consecutive high-leverage moments: Pete Alonso was hit by a pitch for an 18.8 percent swing, Jeff McNeil followed with a single worth 20.1 percent, and Mark Vientos added a single that moved the needle another 21.1 percent. Philadelphia mounted a response in the bottom of the ninth when Alec Bohm drew a walk off Drew Smith that represented the single largest win-probability swing of the game at 26.9 percent, but the Phillies could not complete the comeback and fell 6-5.

Mark Vientos led all batters with a 28.5 percent WPA and a 1.3 RE24, finishing as the most impactful offensive contributor by the DiamondIQ model's estimate. Alec Bohm posted a 26.4 percent WPA despite his team's loss, a reflection of how close Philadelphia came in the ninth, while Jeff McNeil added 22.3 percent WPA in support of the Mets' final push. On the pitching side, Jeff Hoffman paced New York's staff with an 18.3 percent WPA, followed by Taijuan Walker at 10.3 percent and Matt Strahm at 7.2 percent for Philadelphia.