Tampa Bay Rays at Baltimore Orioles: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TB | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 13 | 0 |
| BAL | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
The Story
The Tampa Bay Rays erased a three-run deficit to defeat the Baltimore Orioles 4-3 at Oriole Park at Camden Yards on June 2, 2024, handing the home side a loss despite Baltimore holding a 70 percent pre-game win probability according to the DiamondIQ model's estimate. The Orioles built their lead incrementally, scoring in the first, third, and fourth innings off Zack Littell, with Anthony Santander's single in the bottom of the third carrying a 9.9 percent win-probability swing. Tampa Bay chipped away with a run in the fifth, then José Caballero delivered a home run off Cole Irvin in the seventh that added 13.2 percent to the Rays' win probability, cutting the gap to one.
The decisive sequence unfolded across the final two innings. Jose Siri's double off Dillon Tate in the top of the eighth swung win probability 25.5 percent toward Tampa Bay and helped fuel a two-run frame that gave the Rays a 4-3 lead. Baltimore's best chance to respond came immediately in the bottom of the eighth, when Ryan Mountcastle grounded into a double play against Garrett Cleavinger, a single swing that collapsed Baltimore's win probability by 41.4 percent and effectively transferred control of the game to Tampa Bay. Cleavinger finished as the game's most valuable pitcher by WPA at plus-23.3 percent. Pete Fairbanks closed it out in the ninth, and Colton Cowser's groundout to end the game registered as a plus-27.0 percent WPA event from Baltimore's perspective, confirming the model's final estimate of zero percent for the home side.
Among position players, Siri finished with a 16.9 percent WPA and a plus-0.6 RE24, while Gunnar Henderson led Baltimore with a 16.6 percent WPA and a plus-2.1 RE24, the latter the highest run-expectancy contribution of any batter on either side. The Rays' 13 hits to Baltimore's 15 illustrated how the game's outcome turned not on volume but on sequence, with Tampa Bay's clustering of runs in the seventh and eighth innings proving insurmountable for an Orioles lineup that stranded its opportunities at the worst possible moments.