MLB Recap · June 2, 2024

Washington Nationals at Cleveland Guardians: Final Score & Recap

WSH5
Final
CLE2

Line Score

Team123456789RHE
WSH040100000580
CLE020000000260

The Story

The Washington Nationals handed the Cleveland Guardians a 5-2 defeat at Progressive Field on June 2, 2024, overcoming a DiamondIQ model pre-game home win probability of 72% to leave Cleveland with the win. The Nationals did the bulk of their damage in the second inning, plating four runs to seize control early against Carlos Carrasco, and added a fifth run in the fourth to build a cushion that Cleveland never seriously threatened.

The second inning was the decisive turn in the game. A groundout by Luis García Jr. off Carrasco carried a win-probability swing of plus 13.0% for Washington, reflecting how the Nationals were threading through the Cleveland defense in a productive frame. García Jr. finished as the game's top offensive performer by WPA at plus 11.7%, and Ildemaro Vargas contributed a plus 7.6% WPA showing with a plus 1.0 RE24, making him the most efficient run-context producer among position players. Cleveland briefly answered in the bottom of the second when Daniel Schneemann doubled off Jake Irvin for a plus 8.7% swing from Cleveland's perspective, but Brayan Rocchio's strikeout in the same inning represented a minus 11.4% swing against the Guardians, effectively neutralizing the threat. A Tyler Freeman groundout into a double play in the fifth, worth minus 7.4%, further extinguished Cleveland's chances, and José Ramírez was held in check with a first-inning flyout that cost the Guardians 5.8% in win probability.

Jake Irvin was the story of the game on the mound, posting a remarkable plus 30.9% WPA that stood well above any other performer in the contest. The DiamondIQ model's estimate for a Cleveland win fell from 72% before first pitch to zero percent by the final out, a collapse driven almost entirely by Irvin's dominance. Robert Garcia and Sam Hentges supplemented him out of the bullpen with plus 6.3% and plus 5.6% WPA contributions respectively, as Washington's pitching staff combined to allow just six hits and zero errors while preserving the three-run victory.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025WSH bats firstFinalCLE win %WSH win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 72.4% → final 0%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Luis García Jr. Groundout
Top 2nd · off Carlos Carrasco
+13.0%
Brayan Rocchio Strikeout
Bot 2nd · off Jake Irvin
-11.4%
Bot 2nd · off Jake Irvin
+8.7%
Tyler Freeman Grounded Into DP
Bot 5th · off Jake Irvin
-7.4%
José Ramírez Flyout
Bot 1st · off Jake Irvin
-5.8%

Top Batters by WPA

Luis García Jr.+11.7%-0.6 RE24
Ildemaro Vargas+7.6%+1.0 RE24
Kyle Manzardo+5.4%-0.2 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

Full box score, pitch data, and the play-by-play timeline
Open Game Center →