Arizona Diamondbacks at New York Mets: Final Score & Recap

The Arizona Diamondbacks rallied past the New York Mets 5-4 at Citi Field on June 2, 2024, erasing a four-run deficit with a five-run effort split between the first two innings and a decisive two-run ninth. The DiamondIQ model entered the game with the Mets holding a razor-thin 49% win probability, a margin that evaporated entirely by the final out as Arizona finished with a 0% home win probability for the host club. The Mets had seized control in the bottom of the third, when Brandon Nimmo's triple off Brandon Pfaadt represented the single largest positive swing for New York in the game, adding 22.3 percentage points of win probability and keying a four-run frame that seemed to put the game firmly in their hands.

The decisive moment came in the top of the ninth, when Ketel Marte launched a home run off Jake Diekman that swung win probability by 48.1 percentage points, the most consequential single play of the contest. A Gabriel Moreno double, also off Diekman, preceded or accompanied the burst and added another 20.4 points, completing the two-run rally that gave Arizona a 5-4 lead. In the bottom of the ninth, Mark Vientos's pop out against Paul Sewald effectively closed the door, registering a 31.6-point swing in Arizona's favor from the batting-team perspective. Marte finished as the game's most impactful offensive player according to the DiamondIQ model, totaling a plus-54.1% WPA and a RE24 of plus-2.9. Nimmo led the Mets at plus-23.1% WPA despite his team's loss, while on the pitching side Adam Ottavino led New York's relievers with a plus-10.8% WPA, followed closely by Dedniel Núñez at plus-9.9% and Reed Garrett at plus-8.5%.