St. Louis Cardinals at Houston Astros: Final Score & Recap

The Houston Astros handled the St. Louis Cardinals 7-1 on March 2, 2024, at CACTI Park of the Palm Beaches, a result the DiamondIQ model's estimate saw coming after opening at 54 percent in favor of Houston and finishing at 100 percent. The Astros built their advantage in stages, scoring two in the third, one in the sixth, one in the seventh, and three more in the eighth, while Cardinals starter Zack Thompson absorbed the most damaging sequence of the afternoon. In the bottom of the third, a Yordan Alvarez single off Thompson shifted win probability by plus-11.1 percent, and a Jose Altuve double off the same pitcher added another plus-8.7 percent, the two most consequential at-bats of the game according to the DiamondIQ model's estimate.

The Cardinals' lone moment of legitimate threat came in the top of the seventh, when Victor Scott II tripled off Wander Suero to produce a plus-8.4 percent swing, but Houston's bullpen prevented any further damage and St. Louis finished with just one run on six hits. Kyle Tucker's solo home run off Sem Robberse in the bottom of the sixth, worth plus-8.0 percent, pushed the margin further before the Astros closed things out with three eighth-inning runs. On the other side of the ledger, Masyn Winn's strikeout against Bryan Abreu in the top of the sixth represented a minus-5.8 percent swing that snuffed a potential Cardinals rally.

Alvarez led all batters with a plus-11.7 percent WPA and a RE24 of plus-1.2, with Altuve contributing plus-8.2 percent WPA and Tucker adding plus-4.6 percent. On the mound, Cristian Javier paced the Houston staff at plus-8.2 percent WPA, followed by Abreu at plus-6.4 percent and Josh Hader at plus-5.9 percent, a trio that collectively ensured the Cardinals never mounted a meaningful comeback bid.