MLB Recap · November 1, 2023

Texas Rangers at Arizona Diamondbacks: Final Score & Recap

TEX5
Final
AZ0

Line Score

Team123456789RHE
TEX000000104590
AZ000000000051

The Story

The Texas Rangers shut out the Arizona Diamondbacks 5-0 on November 1, 2023, at Chase Field, completing a dominant performance that erased the DiamondIQ model's pre-game estimate of a 54 percent home win probability for Arizona down to zero by the final out. The game remained scoreless through six innings before the Rangers broke through in the seventh, with the two most consequential offensive plays arriving in succession against Zac Gallen. Evan Carter's double in the top of the seventh shifted win probability 14.0 percent in Texas's favor, and Mitch Garver followed with a single that added another 10.0 percent, opening the scoring and seizing control of a tightly contested game. The Rangers then piled on four more runs in the ninth to finalize the shutout, finishing with nine hits and no errors against Arizona's five hits and one error.

Arizona's best chance to respond came and went without damage. Lourdes Gurriel Jr.'s groundout in the bottom of the fifth against Nathan Eovaldi cost the Diamondbacks 9.1 percent in win probability, and Pavin Smith's strikeout against Josh Sborz in the bottom of the eighth erased another 16.5 percent, representing the single largest win-probability swing of the night and effectively ending any realistic hope of a comeback. Among batters, Ketel Marte led all players with a 14.7 percent WPA contribution and a RE24 of plus-1.1, while Corey Seager added 11.9 percent WPA at the same run-expectancy figure.

The pitching staff carried Texas throughout. Nathan Eovaldi led all pitchers with a 31.0 percent WPA, controlling Arizona's lineup through the middle innings, while Josh Sborz contributed 27.3 percent in relief and Kevin Ginkel posted 22.2 percent despite surrendering a negative play when Garver grounded out in the eighth. The Rangers' collective efficiency on the mound, paired with the timely hitting of Carter and Garver in the seventh, defined a decisive World Series game that was never truly in doubt after Texas found the scoreboard.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025TEX bats firstFinalAZ win %TEX win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 54% → final 0%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Pavin Smith Strikeout
Bot 8th · off Josh Sborz
-16.5%
Evan Carter Double
Top 7th · off Zac Gallen
+14.0%
Mitch Garver Single
Top 7th · off Zac Gallen
+10.0%
Mitch Garver Groundout
Top 8th · off Kevin Ginkel
-9.5%
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. Groundout
Bot 5th · off Nathan Eovaldi
-9.1%

Top Batters by WPA

Ketel Marte+14.7%+1.1 RE24
Corey Seager+11.9%+1.1 RE24
Evan Carter+3.9%-0.1 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

Full box score, pitch data, and the play-by-play timeline
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