Baltimore Orioles at Cleveland Guardians: Final Score & Recap

The Baltimore Orioles edged the Cleveland Guardians 2-1 at Progressive Field on September 23, 2023, holding on despite a late Cleveland push to secure a road victory. The DiamondIQ model entered the game giving Cleveland a 39 percent chance of winning at home, a figure that ultimately fell to zero as Baltimore's pitching staff controlled the Guardians through nine innings, limiting them to just one hit on the night.

The decisive sequence unfolded in the middle innings. Baltimore added to its first-inning run with a go-ahead Anthony Santander single off Xzavion Curry in the top of the sixth, a hit that shifted win probability by 12.8 percent in the Orioles' favor. Cleveland responded in the bottom of the seventh when Andrés Giménez connected on a home run off John Means, a swing worth 15.2 percent in win probability that briefly kept Cleveland's hopes alive. However, a Kole Calhoun strikeout against Yennier Cano in the eighth, which swung win probability 12.9 percent against the Guardians, proved a critical missed opportunity for Cleveland to apply further pressure.

The top performers told the story clearly. Among batters, Josh Naylor posted a 25.3 percent WPA despite his game-ending groundout in the ninth representing the largest single-play swing of the night at 31.6 percent, reflecting how close Cleveland came to extending the game. Andrés Giménez contributed 10.8 percent WPA on the strength of his solo home run, while Anthony Santander led Baltimore's offensive contributors at 9.1 percent WPA with an RE24 of plus-2.2. On the mound, John Means led all pitchers with a 30.8 percent WPA figure, with Yennier Cano and Cal Quantrill adding 17.1 and 15.0 percent respectively as Baltimore's bullpen closed out the one-run win.