Atlanta Braves at Washington Nationals: Final Score & Recap

The Atlanta Braves defeated the Washington Nationals 9-6 at Nationals Park on September 22, 2023, handing Washington a loss that left the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a home victory at exactly zero percent by game's end, down from a pre-game figure of 34. Atlanta scored in five of nine innings, building their advantage through timely extra-base hitting and a decisive seventh-inning surge that effectively ended the competitive portion of the contest.

The single most consequential swing of the game came in the top of the seventh, when Marcell Ozuna connected on a home run off Andrés Machado that shifted win probability by 19.4 percentage points in Atlanta's favor. That blow extended what had already been a back-and-forth affair into a comfortable Braves lead. Earlier, Ozzie Albies had delivered a double off Jordan Weems in the fifth that added 11.9 percentage points to Atlanta's chances, and the Braves' three-run first inning set the tone from the opening frame. Washington had its own moments, most notably Ildemaro Vargas's triple off Darius Vines in the bottom of the fourth, which represented the game's second-largest single play by win probability at plus 15.5 points, and Jake Alu's triple in the sixth off Vines generated another 9.8-point swing, but Atlanta's offense consistently answered.

Among individual performers, Vargas led all players with a WPA of plus 17.6 and an RE24 of plus 0.5, while Ozuna finished at plus 16.7 WPA and a game-high RE24 of plus 2.1, underscoring his outsized run-production impact. Alu contributed plus 10.9 WPA and an RE24 of plus 1.1 for Washington. On the pitching side, Charlie Morton paced Atlanta's staff with a WPA of plus 3.8, while Michael Tonkin added plus 3.6 and Robert Garcia contributed plus 2.7 in support of the Braves' bullpen effort. Atlanta finished the game with no errors against Washington's one, a clean defensive performance that complemented ten hits and a nine-run output.