New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies: Final Score & Recap

The Philadelphia Phillies held off the New York Mets 5-4 at Citizens Bank Park on September 21, 2023, in a game that shifted momentum repeatedly before Philadelphia ultimately secured the win. The DiamondIQ model entered the game favoring the Phillies at 62% and closed at 100% as the final out was recorded.

The most consequential sequence came in the middle innings, where the game's three largest win-probability swings occurred within four innings of each other. Mark Vientos gave the Mets a lift in the top of the sixth with a home run off Ranger Suarez, a swing worth plus 13.6% in win probability. Philadelphia answered almost immediately in the bottom half, when Nick Castellanos hit a home run off Jeff Brigham that shifted the odds by plus 13.8% in the Phillies' favor, effectively erasing the Mets' momentum in real time. Earlier, Alec Bohm had provided Philadelphia with a foundation in the third inning, his home run off David Peterson adding plus 10.9% to the Phillies' win probability. The Mets mounted a late threat in the top of the ninth when Brandon Nimmo doubled off José Alvarado for a plus 13.7% swing, but Francisco Alvarez's pop out against Craig Kimbrel in the eighth had already cost New York 12.3 percentage points, and the deficit proved unrecoverable.

Castellanos finished as one of the game's standout performers by the DiamondIQ model's measures, posting plus 17.6% WPA and a RE24 of plus 2.5, while Jeff McNeil led all position players with plus 17.9% WPA despite a RE24 of plus 1.8. Nimmo contributed plus 14.9% WPA for the Mets but could not manufacture the tying run. On the mound, Alvarado led Philadelphia's relievers with plus 15.2% WPA, followed by Kimbrel at plus 10.8%, as the Phillies' bullpen preserved the one-run margin through the final innings.