Los Angeles Angels at Tampa Bay Rays: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAA | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 10 | 0 |
| TB | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 9 | 1 |
The Story
The Tampa Bay Rays edged the Los Angeles Angels 5-4 on September 21, 2023, at Tropicana Field in a game that wasn't decided until the final at-bats of the ninth inning. The DiamondIQ model entered the night favoring Tampa Bay with a 69 percent home win probability, and while the Rays did ultimately prevail, the path to that outcome was anything but smooth. Los Angeles clawed back on multiple occasions, including a two-run sixth inning highlighted by a Jo Adell home run off Shawn Armstrong that added 23.5 percent to the Angels' win probability, briefly threatening to flip the game's complexion entirely.
The decisive sequence arrived in the bottom of the ninth against closer Carlos Estévez. With Tampa Bay trailing or in a precarious position, Manuel Margot delivered a single that swung win probability 33.4 percent in the Rays' favor, the single most impactful play of the game by DiamondIQ's estimate. Isaac Paredes followed with another single off Estévez, adding another 26.9 percent, and together those two hits effectively sealed the outcome. The model's estimate moved to 100 percent by game's end. David Fletcher had given the Angels life earlier with a fourth-inning single off Zach Eflin worth 19.1 percent in win probability, and Fletcher finished as the top Angels performer with a WPA of plus-19.5 and an RE24 of plus-1.5.
Margot led all players with a WPA of plus-41.1, while Yandy Díaz contributed a plus-22.6 WPA and an RE24 of plus-1.1 in support of the Rays' offense. On the pitching side, Ben Joyce was the most valuable arm of the night despite surrendering the late Angels threat, finishing with a plus-23.3 WPA by holding earlier damage at bay. Griffin Canning and José Soriano also contributed positively for their respective clubs, posting WPA figures of plus-10.9 and plus-9.7. Tampa Bay finished with nine hits and one error against Los Angeles's ten hits and clean fielding, with the Rays ultimately doing just enough in the right moments to secure the one-run victory.