MLB Recap · September 15, 2023

Texas Rangers at Cleveland Guardians: Final Score & Recap

TEX3
Final
CLE12

Line Score

Team123456789RHE
TEX000000003360
CLE02011530-12150

The Story

The Cleveland Guardians handed the Texas Rangers a decisive 12-3 defeat on September 15, 2023, at Progressive Field, turning what the DiamondIQ model estimated as a near-even contest at 46 percent pre-game home win probability into a complete runaway, with the model's estimate reaching 100 percent by the final out. Cleveland scored in five of nine innings and never allowed the Rangers to threaten until a meaningless three-run ninth, finishing with 15 hits against a Texas pitching staff that had no answers after the early frames.

The game turned in the second inning when Andrés Giménez connected on a home run off Jon Gray, a swing that shifted win probability by 12.7 percent in Cleveland's favor and set the tone for an evening that would belong entirely to the Guardians. Josh Naylor added a single in the fourth off Gray that moved the needle another 7.8 percent, and Ramón Laureano delivered a home run against Andrew Heaney in the fifth for another 5.5-percent swing. Cleveland then poured on five runs in the sixth and three more in the seventh to put the game firmly out of reach.

Among the individual standouts, Giménez finished as the top offensive contributor by WPA at plus-13.0 percent to go with a RE24 of plus-2.0, while Naylor posted a plus-10.5 percent WPA and led all batters with a plus-2.2 RE24. Laureano added plus-8.7 percent WPA and plus-1.6 RE24. On the mound, Lucas Giolito was dominant, accumulating a team-best plus-25.7 percent WPA as he absorbed the bulk of Cleveland's innings and kept Texas largely in check throughout.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025TEX bats firstFinalCLE win %TEX win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 45.5% → final 100%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Andrés Giménez Home Run
Bot 2nd · off Jon Gray
+12.7%
Josh Naylor Single
Bot 4th · off Jon Gray
+7.8%
Ramón Laureano Home Run
Bot 5th · off Andrew Heaney
+5.5%
Steven Kwan Flyout
Bot 2nd · off Jon Gray
+4.3%
Will Brennan Flyout
Bot 3rd · off Jon Gray
-3.6%

Top Batters by WPA

Andrés Giménez+13.0%+2.0 RE24
Josh Naylor+10.5%+2.2 RE24
Ramón Laureano+8.7%+1.6 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

Full box score, pitch data, and the play-by-play timeline
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