Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlins: Final Score & Recap

The Miami Marlins defeated the Atlanta Braves 9-6 on September 15, 2023 at loanDepot park, turning what had been a contested game into a convincing home win behind a decisive fifth-inning explosion in the seventh. The DiamondIQ model opened with Miami at a 40 percent pre-game win probability, a figure that climbed steadily before reaching 100 percent by the final out. Atlanta had shown life in the middle innings, with Ozzie Albies delivering a single off David Robertson in the top of the sixth that swung win probability 15.2 points in the Braves' favor, keeping their deficit manageable heading into the late stages.

The game turned definitively in the bottom of the seventh, when Miami sent five runs across the plate against Atlanta relievers Brad Hand and Pierce Johnson. Jacob Stallings opened the inning with a double off Hand that shifted win probability 31.2 points toward the Marlins, the single biggest swing of the game. Garrett Hampson followed with another double off Hand, adding 19.9 points, before Luis Arraez put the game away with a home run off Johnson worth another 15.8 points. The sequence erased any remaining uncertainty, as Miami outscored Atlanta 9-6 on the strength of 13 hits against zero errors, while Atlanta committed one.

Garrett Hampson finished as the top position player by the DiamondIQ model's estimate, posting a WPA of plus 23.2 percent alongside a RE24 of plus 1.4. Stallings was close behind at plus 20.3 percent WPA and a RE24 of plus 2.0, while Xavier Edwards contributed plus 19.7 percent WPA. On the mound, A.J. Puk led Miami's relievers with a WPA of plus 8.0 percent, followed by Andrew Nardi at plus 4.5 percent and Tanner Scott at plus 2.4 percent.