Tampa Bay Rays at Cleveland Guardians: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TB | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 13 | 2 |
| CLE | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 3 |
The Story
The Tampa Bay Rays defeated the Cleveland Guardians 6-2 on September 3, 2023, at Progressive Field, finishing what the DiamondIQ model's estimate had projected as an evenly contested game — Cleveland entered with a 42% home win probability — and dismantling that margin entirely by the final out. The Rays generated their offense in bursts, scoring two in the third, one in the fifth, one in the eighth, and three in the ninth, while Cleveland managed single runs in the third and fifth before going quiet over the game's final four innings. Tampa Bay outhit Cleveland 13 to 5 and benefited from three Cleveland errors to the Rays' two.
The decisive swings in win probability came from both sides of the ball. René Pinto's third-inning home run off Xzavion Curry shifted the win probability 16.5 points in Tampa Bay's favor, giving the Rays early control. The game's single largest batting play came in the top of the eighth, when Taylor Walls singled off Trevor Stephan for an 18.5-point swing, extending Tampa Bay's advantage at a moment when Cleveland still retained theoretical relevance. On the other side, José Tena's groundout to end the bottom of the eighth against Robert Stephenson cost the Guardians 12.9 points of win probability, effectively closing the door on any Cleveland comeback before the Rays added three more in the ninth.
Taylor Walls was the game's top offensive performer by the DiamondIQ model's estimate, finishing with a combined WPA of plus-22.3% and a RE24 of plus-1.4, driven largely by that pivotal eighth-inning single. Yandy Díaz contributed plus-8.2% WPA and plus-0.4 RE24, including a walk off Nick Sandlin in the seventh that generated 11.5 points of win probability after Isaac Paredes had just surrendered 12.3 points on a pop out to the same pitcher. On the mound, Robert Stephenson led all pitchers with a WPA of plus-23.3%, with Kevin Kelly and Sam Hentges adding plus-10.8% and plus-9.1% respectively as the Rays bullpen held Cleveland scoreless across the game's final four innings.