New York Yankees at Houston Astros: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYY | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 8 | 0 |
| HOU | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 1 |
The Story
The New York Yankees defeated the Houston Astros 5-4 on September 2, 2023, at Minute Maid Park, handing the home team a loss despite Houston entering the game as a heavy favorite. The DiamondIQ model's estimate gave the Astros a 61 percent chance of winning before first pitch, but the Yankees methodically chipped away at that edge through the middle innings. New York scored twice in the second, once in the third, and twice more in the fifth to build the margin that ultimately held, while Houston's scoring came in bursts in the second and fourth innings before the bullpen locked things down.
The decisive moments clustered in the late innings, where the game's two biggest win-probability swings came from opposite ends of the spectrum. In the bottom of the fourth, Yainer Diaz's home run off Luis Severino shifted Houston's win probability by plus 20.7 percent, and Michael Brantley's second-inning home run off Severino had earlier added 12.1 percent, keeping the Astros competitive. But the Yankees' relief corps proved the difference. Jhony Brito was the standout, generating plus 34.8 percent win probability on the night, including a key bottom-eighth sequence that featured an Alex Bregman groundout into a double play worth minus 19.0 percent to the Astros. Wandy Peralta added plus 12.9 percent, retiring Kyle Tucker on a flyout that swung the needle by minus 16.5 percent against Houston.
Clay Holmes closed things out in the ninth, and the game's single largest win-probability moment belonged to Jon Singleton's strikeout to end it, a plus 27.0 percent swing that sealed the Yankees' road victory. Diaz finished as Houston's most impactful bat at plus 19.1 percent WPA and plus 1.4 RE24, while Everson Pereira contributed plus 10.3 percent WPA and plus 1.2 RE24 on the Yankees' side. The DiamondIQ model's estimate ended at zero percent for Houston, a clean reflection of how completely New York controlled the game's final stages despite the Astros' early home-field positioning.