Miami Marlins at Washington Nationals: Final Score & Recap

The Miami Marlins rolled through Washington on September 2, 2023, defeating the Nationals 11-5 at Nationals Park behind an 18-hit attack that erased any doubt early. The DiamondIQ model entered the game with the Nationals as a near coin-flip at 49% pre-game win probability, but by the end of a decisive third inning, that figure had collapsed toward zero as Miami built an insurmountable advantage against Trevor Williams.

The pivotal sequence came in the third inning, where the Marlins did the bulk of their damage. Jesús Sánchez delivered the most impactful swing of the night, a home run off Williams that shifted win probability by plus-15.8 percentage points, and Jake Burger followed with another home run off the same pitcher for an additional plus-10.2 swing. Together those two blows were the spine of a four-run third that effectively ended the competitive portion of the evening. Earlier, in the second inning, Luis Arraez had also kept pressure building with a single off Williams worth plus-6.8 points of win probability, while on the Washington side Riley Adams briefly offered some hope with a double off Johnny Cueto that generated plus-9.7 for the Nationals, though a Jacob Young double play two batters later erased that momentum at minus-11.0.

Among individual performers measured by WPA and run expectancy, Sánchez led all players finishing at plus-16.8 WPA and plus-2.8 RE24. Bryan De La Cruz contributed meaningfully across the lineup with plus-10.5 WPA and a team-best plus-3.4 RE24, while Burger rounded out the top three at plus-10.3 WPA. On the pitching side, Johnny Cueto paced Miami's staff with plus-4.3 WPA, navigating enough traffic to keep the Marlins comfortably ahead through the middle innings as the offense added insurance runs in the seventh.