Washington Nationals at Miami Marlins: Final Score & Recap

The Miami Marlins defeated the Washington Nationals 2-1 at loanDepot park on August 27, 2023, with all three runs coming in the third inning and neither team threatening the scoreboard again the rest of the way. The DiamondIQ model entered the game giving Miami a 58% win probability, and by the final out that figure had climbed to 100%.

The third inning proved to be the entire contest in miniature. Lane Thomas gave Washington a foothold with a double off Bryan Hoeing that shifted win probability 10.4 points in the Nationals' favor. Miami answered emphatically when Jorge Soler connected off Trevor Williams for a home run, the game's single most consequential swing at plus 17.3 win-probability points, erasing Washington's brief lead and putting the Marlins ahead 2-1. That was the last scoring either side would produce, as six innings of zeros followed. Washington mounted its most credible late threat in the ninth against Tanner Scott, with Keibert Ruiz singling to add 7.6 points of win probability, but Jacob Young grounded into a double play on the very next sequence, a swing of negative 21.8 points that effectively sealed the outcome.

Soler finished as the game's most impactful offensive player at plus 14.8 WPA and plus 1.7 RE24, while Ruiz and CJ Abrams were the only Nationals to post positive WPA marks. On the pitching side, Scott led all arms at plus 15.2 WPA despite allowing the Ruiz single, with Steven Okert close behind at plus 12.8 WPA and Williams contributing plus 12.2 WPA after surviving the Thomas double to close out a strong third. Lane Thomas was a study in contrast, generating Washington's best plate appearance of the night in the third and then striking out in the seventh against A.J. Puk in a minus 7.7 point swing that typified the Nationals' inability to build on any momentum they created.