MLB Recap · July 6, 2023

Kansas City Royals at Cleveland Guardians: Final Score & Recap

KC1
Final
CLE6

Line Score

Team123456789RHE
KC100000000161
CLE01000401-6111

The Story

The Cleveland Guardians handled the Kansas City Royals decisively on July 6, 2023 at Progressive Field, winning 6-1 behind a lopsided sixth inning that effectively closed the door on any Kansas City comeback. The DiamondIQ model entered the game already favoring Cleveland heavily at 74% pre-game home win probability, and that figure climbed to 100% by the final out. The Royals grabbed a brief 1-0 lead in the first inning but could not build on it, and Cleveland's offense did its most consequential damage in a four-run sixth that swung the game decisively.

The sixth inning was the pivot point. José Ramírez connected on a home run off Amir Garrett that added 13.8% to Cleveland's win probability, and Josh Naylor followed with another home run off Garrett moments later, contributing an additional 11.2% swing. Those two swings alone accounted for the bulk of the offensive damage within the frame. Earlier, Andrés Giménez had added a home run off Jordan Lyles in the second inning for a 7.7% win probability gain, giving Cleveland the lead for good. Kansas City had chances early — Josh Naylor's strikeout in the first inning cost the Guardians 9.0% win probability on the other side of the ledger, and Bo Naylor's grounded into double play in the second inning represented an 11.0% swing against Cleveland — but the Royals never capitalized.

Among Cleveland's standout performers by the DiamondIQ model's metrics, Jordan Lyles led all pitchers with a 28.9% WPA, limiting damage across his outing despite surrendering the early run. Ramírez led all batters at +14.4% WPA and posted a 0.7 RE24, while Giménez contributed +5.3% WPA and led position players with a 1.4 RE24. Will Brennan also made a meaningful contribution at +6.4% WPA. Eli Morgan and Tanner Bibee each added positive pitching value at 7.1% and 4.9% WPA respectively as Cleveland completed a thorough, efficient win.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025KC bats firstFinalCLE win %KC win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 74.3% → final 100%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

José Ramírez Home Run
Bot 6th · off Amir Garrett
+13.8%
Josh Naylor Home Run
Bot 6th · off Amir Garrett
+11.2%
Bo Naylor Grounded Into DP
Bot 2nd · off Jordan Lyles
-11.0%
Josh Naylor Strikeout
Bot 1st · off Jordan Lyles
-9.0%
Andrés Giménez Home Run
Bot 2nd · off Jordan Lyles
+7.7%

Top Batters by WPA

José Ramírez+14.4%+0.7 RE24
Will Brennan+6.4%+0.4 RE24
Andrés Giménez+5.3%+1.4 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

Full box score, pitch data, and the play-by-play timeline
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