Los Angeles Angels at San Diego Padres: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAA | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 1 |
| SD | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | - | 8 | 11 | 1 |
The Story
The San Diego Padres defeated the Los Angeles Angels 8-5 on July 4, 2023, at Petco Park, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a San Diego victory moving from a dead-even 49 percent pre-game to a certainty of 100 percent by the final out. The Padres built their lead methodically against Shohei Ohtani, with Jake Cronenworth delivering the game's single most impactful swing in the bottom of the fourth, a double off Ohtani that shifted win probability by plus 19.1 percent. San Diego extended its advantage in the bottom of the sixth when Xander Bogaerts connected on a home run off Ohtani, adding another plus 15.9 percent to the Padres' win probability and effectively putting the contest out of reach. Ohtani was also involved in the game's sharpest negative swing for San Diego, as Fernando Tatis Jr. struck out in the bottom of the fifth at a cost of 11.3 percent win probability from the Padres' perspective, a sequence that briefly kept Los Angeles within striking distance.
The Angels made their most credible push in the top of the fifth, when Hunter Renfroe homered off Joe Musgrove to generate a plus 11.1 percent win-probability swing, cutting into the San Diego lead and accounting for the game's most consequential Angels offensive moment. That momentum was quickly contained, however, as Taylor Ward grounded into a double play in the top of the sixth off Musgrove, costing the Angels 11.3 percent in win probability and ending any realistic threat. Musgrove finished as the game's most valuable pitcher by the DiamondIQ model's accounting, contributing plus 21.7 percent in win probability added, with Josh Hader and Aaron Loup adding smaller contributions in relief. Cronenworth led all position players with plus 25.8 percent WPA and a RE24 of plus 2.6, while Bogaerts and Renfroe rounded out the top performers despite playing for opposing sides. Los Angeles finished with six hits and an error against San Diego's eleven hits in a loss that was largely decided by the middle innings.