MLB Recap · June 23, 2023

Washington Nationals at San Diego Padres: Final Score & Recap

WSH3
Final
SD13

Line Score

Team123456789RHE
WSH0000010023100
SD10006042-13150

The Story

The San Diego Padres routed the Washington Nationals 13-3 at Petco Park on June 23, 2023, a result that pushed the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a home win from 65 percent before first pitch to 100 percent by game's end. San Diego did its most decisive damage in the fifth inning, when a six-run frame effectively ended any remaining competitive tension. Ha-Seong Kim's single in that bottom fifth was the single most impactful play of the game, shifting win probability by plus 15.1 percent, part of a night in which Kim finished as the top offensive contributor with a cumulative WPA of plus 16.0 percent and a RE24 of plus 1.7. The Padres added four more runs in the seventh and two in the eighth, turning what had briefly shown some early intrigue into a comfortable rout.

The game's most interesting early sequence came in the top of the third inning, when the Nationals briefly generated some positive leverage. CJ Abrams laced a double off Joe Musgrove that carried a win-probability swing of plus 8.9 percent, putting Washington in position to threaten. However, a Lane Thomas strikeout and a Luis García Jr. groundout absorbed the momentum entirely, costing the visitors 8.2 and 6.4 percentage points respectively and allowing Musgrove to escape the inning unscathed. Musgrove was the game's dominant individual performer by pitching WPA, finishing with a plus 17.6 percent contribution as he kept the Nationals' lineup in check through the critical early innings.

On the Washington side, Abrams and Juan Soto provided the only notable offensive production in a losing effort. Soto posted a RE24 of plus 2.8, the highest of any batter on either side, while Abrams finished with a WPA of plus 7.6 percent and a RE24 of plus 1.2. Patrick Corbin was largely undone by the fifth-inning collapse, with Kim's single against him serving as the linchpin of San Diego's big rally. The Nationals scratched across two runs in the ninth but by then the DiamondIQ model had long since locked in a Padres outcome, reflecting how thoroughly San Diego controlled the contest from the middle innings onward.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025WSH bats firstFinalSD win %WSH win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 65.2% → final 100%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Ha-Seong Kim Single
Bot 5th · off Patrick Corbin
+15.1%
CJ Abrams Double
Top 3rd · off Joe Musgrove
+8.9%
Lane Thomas Strikeout
Top 3rd · off Joe Musgrove
-8.2%
Manny Machado Grounded Into DP
Bot 4th · off Patrick Corbin
-7.0%
Luis García Jr. Groundout
Top 3rd · off Joe Musgrove
-6.4%

Top Batters by WPA

Ha-Seong Kim+16.0%+1.7 RE24
CJ Abrams+7.6%+1.2 RE24
Juan Soto+5.3%+2.8 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

Full box score, pitch data, and the play-by-play timeline
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