MLB Recap · June 8, 2023

Arizona Diamondbacks at Washington Nationals: Final Score & Recap

AZ5
Final
WSH3

Line Score

Team123456789RHE
AZ100100300590
WSH001000002392

The Story

The Arizona Diamondbacks defeated the Washington Nationals 5-3 at Nationals Park on June 8, 2023, in a game that the DiamondIQ model had already framed as a long shot for the home side, assigning Washington just a 32% win probability before first pitch. The D-backs finished with nine hits and no errors against a Nationals club that committed two of its own, and the final score reflects a contest that turned decisively in Arizona's favor on a single swing in the seventh inning.

That swing came from Ketel Marte, who connected for a home run off Jordan Weems in the top of the seventh, shifting win probability by 29.3 percentage points and representing the single most consequential play of the night. Marte finished as the game's top batter by WPA at plus-18.3%, though his evening was not without a blemish — a fifth-inning groundball double play off Jake Irvin cost Arizona 9.6 percentage points of win probability and briefly kept the game within reach for Washington. The Nationals had drawn first on Lane Thomas's third-inning home run off Tommy Henry, a plus-11.2% swing that temporarily gave the home side life, but the D-backs answered with a three-run seventh that proved insurmountable. A CJ Abrams flyout to end the bottom of the ninth added 14.4 percentage points to Arizona's final probability column, as Washington's two-run rally in the ninth fell short.

On the pitching side, Jake Irvin led all pitchers with a plus-19.0% WPA despite surrendering the D-backs' three-run seventh, while Tommy Henry posted plus-18.2% WPA in his outing for Arizona. Keibert Ruiz led Washington's position players with a plus-6.2% WPA and a plus-1.1 RE24, offering one of the few bright spots for the Nationals in a loss that left the DiamondIQ model's final estimate of Washington's win probability at exactly zero.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025AZ bats firstFinalWSH win %AZ win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 31.8% → final 0%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Ketel Marte Home Run
Top 7th · off Jordan Weems
+29.3%
CJ Abrams Flyout
Bot 9th · off Scott McGough
+14.4%
Lane Thomas Home Run
Bot 3rd · off Tommy Henry
+11.2%
Ketel Marte Grounded Into DP
Top 5th · off Jake Irvin
-9.6%
Jeimer Candelario Grounded Into DP
Bot 5th · off Tommy Henry
-7.3%

Top Batters by WPA

Ketel Marte+18.3%+0.7 RE24
Lane Thomas+14.1%+0.9 RE24
Keibert Ruiz+6.2%+1.1 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

Full box score, pitch data, and the play-by-play timeline
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