Baltimore Orioles at Tampa Bay Rays: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAL | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 10 | 0 |
| TB | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 9 | 0 |
The Story
The Baltimore Orioles overcame a game that the DiamondIQ model had pegged as a 59 percent pregame favorite for Tampa Bay, ultimately defeating the Rays 8-6 at Tropicana Field on June 20, 2023. Baltimore seized control immediately, plating four runs in the first inning and adding two more in the second to build a 6-0 advantage that proved durable enough to withstand a late Tampa Bay charge. The Rays closed the gap with two runs in the fifth and four in the sixth, but the Orioles held on for the final two innings without surrendering another run, pushing the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a Tampa Bay win to zero percent by the final out.
The decisive moments came early and in clusters. Kyle Bradish was central to Baltimore's dominance on the mound, finishing as the game's top pitching performer by WPA at plus-28.3 percent, and his work was punctuated by key strikeouts that squelched Tampa Bay threats before they could develop. Josh Lowe's strikeout against Bradish in the bottom of the second represented a 13.7 percent win-probability swing against the Rays, and Luke Raley's strikeout in the first cost Tampa Bay 10.9 percent. On the offensive side, Ryan O'Hearn's strikeout off Tyler Glasnow in the top of the second added 12.6 percent to Baltimore's win probability, reflecting just how loaded the situation was when he came to the plate.
Among individual performers, Isaac Paredes led all batters with a plus-22.4 percent WPA and a RE24 of plus-1.5 despite striking out against Félix Bautista in the ninth, a swing that added 12.0 percent to Baltimore's probability as the closer protected the lead. Manuel Margot's sixth-inning single off Danny Coulombe was the single biggest batting play of the game at plus-19.4 percent, serving as the catalyst for Tampa Bay's four-run frame that briefly made things interesting. Yennier Cano and Jason Adam contributed plus-8.0 and plus-6.6 percent WPA respectively out of the Baltimore bullpen, helping preserve the two-run margin through the final innings.