Cleveland Guardians at Arizona Diamondbacks: Final Score & Recap

The Arizona Diamondbacks defeated the Cleveland Guardians 5-1 at Chase Field on June 16, 2023, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate moving from a 67 percent pre-game home win probability all the way to 100 percent by game's end. Arizona built its lead incrementally, scoring in the first, second, sixth, and seventh innings, while Cleveland managed just a single run across nine frames on seven hits.

The decisive swing in the contest came in the fourth inning when José Ramírez connected on a home run off Zac Gallen, a play that added 10.1 percent in win probability for Cleveland and briefly tightened the game. That, however, proved to be the Guardians' high-water mark. The sixth inning delivered the knockout sequence against Xzavion Curry, beginning with Corbin Carroll's double that added 9.2 percent in win probability from Arizona's side, followed immediately by Pavin Smith's run-scoring single at plus 9.1 percent, and then a Geraldo Perdomo double that added another 4.5 percent to close out the inning's damage. Ketel Marte's groundout in the bottom of the fourth had cost Arizona 6.7 percent in win probability, representing the closest the Guardians came to capitalizing on a moment of opportunity.

Individually, Ramírez led all batters with a plus-14.3 percent WPA and 0.8 RE24 despite Cleveland's loss, his home run accounting for nearly the entirety of that total. On the Arizona side, Pavin Smith posted plus-11.6 percent WPA and a team-best 1.1 RE24, while Carroll contributed plus-8.0 percent WPA and 0.9 RE24. Zac Gallen was the game's most impactful performer overall, leading all pitchers with a plus-18.1 percent WPA as he kept Cleveland largely in check throughout his outing despite surrendering the Ramírez home run.