Washington Nationals at Houston Astros: Final Score & Recap

The Washington Nationals defeated the Houston Astros 4-1 in ten innings on June 15, 2023, at Minute Maid Park, erasing what had been a commanding home-team advantage. The DiamondIQ model entered the game estimating a 69 percent win probability for Houston, a figure that held steady through eight scoreless innings before the entire complexion of the game changed in the ninth and tenth frames.

The pivotal sequence began in the top of the ninth when Keibert Ruiz launched a home run off Ryan Pressly, a swing that added 34.2 percent to Washington's win probability and knotted the game at one after Houston had scored in the bottom half of the inning. That Astros rally was itself one of the most consequential stretches of the game — Kyle Tucker's double off Hunter Harvey added 25.1 percent win probability for Houston, and Yainer Diaz followed with a single that registered as the single largest win-probability swing of the night at plus 41.8 percent, briefly making Houston the heavy favorite to close it out. However, José Abreu's strikeout to end the inning cost Houston 16.6 percent, stranding the threat. Washington then put the game away in the tenth, scoring three runs against Phil Maton, with Ildemaro Vargas grounding into an out that, with the bases loaded, still added 16.4 percent for the Nationals under the automatic runner rules.

On the mound, MacKenzie Gore led all pitchers with a plus 32.3 percent WPA contribution, and Cristian Javier posted plus 19.6 percent for Houston despite the loss. Mason Thompson added plus 14.6 percent in relief for Washington to help seal the result. At the plate, Ruiz finished at plus 30.7 percent WPA with a 1.0 RE24, while both Tucker and Diaz ended at plus 26.0 and plus 41.8 percent WPA respectively — numbers that reflected the tension of a game that appeared decided and then wasn't, until it finally was.