Houston Astros at Cleveland Guardians: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 15 | 2 |
| CLE | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 14 | 0 |
The Story
The Cleveland Guardians walked off the Houston Astros 10-9 in a 14-inning marathon at Progressive Field on June 9, 2023, completing a comeback that saw the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a home win climb from 45 percent before first pitch all the way to 100 percent by the final out. Houston jumped out to a 4-0 lead through two innings and held a multi-run advantage deep into the game, but Cleveland chipped away and forced extra innings when Josh Naylor delivered the single most impactful play of the night, a double off Ryan Pressly in the bottom of the ninth that swung win probability by 52.3 points and kept the Guardians alive.
The game remained knotted through the 12th before both sides exchanged runs in the 13th and 14th innings, turning the late frames into a high-leverage back-and-forth. Steven Kwan's single off Seth Martinez in the bottom of the 13th shifted the win probability by 47.1 points, and Martinez could not escape the 14th either, surrendering a Tyler Freeman double worth 44.1 points of win probability and a Will Brennan double worth another 41.4 points that plated the decisive run. Kyle Tucker had kept Houston's hopes alive with a single off Xzavion Curry in the top of the 14th worth 37.4 points of win probability, making him the game's top batter by total WPA at plus-69.5, edging Naylor's plus-69.3 by a fraction.
On the mound, Héctor Neris led all pitchers with a WPA of plus-23.3, providing Cleveland's bullpen its steadiest contribution in a game that required multiple arms from both sides. Ryne Stanek added plus-7.9 and Nick Sandlin contributed plus-6.6 to round out the Guardians' most effective relievers. Houston finished with 15 hits and two errors compared to Cleveland's 14 hits and no errors, a margin that ultimately mattered less than Cleveland's ability to manufacture runs at the moments the DiamondIQ model deemed most consequential.