Boston Red Sox at Cleveland Guardians: Final Score & Recap

The Cleveland Guardians defeated the Boston Red Sox 5-2 at Progressive Field on June 7, 2023, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate of home win probability moving from an even 50% before first pitch to a certainty of 100% by game's end. Cleveland built its decisive advantage in the fourth and fifth innings, doing most of its damage against Boston pitchers Kutter Crawford, Brennan Bernardino, and Justin Garza. The Red Sox managed just five hits and were hurt by two errors of their own, while Cleveland's 11-hit attack proved more than enough to secure the win.

The pivotal sequence came in the bottom of the fourth, when Josh Naylor delivered a single off Crawford that swung win probability 14.8 points in Cleveland's favor, capping a two-run frame that gave the Guardians a lead they would not relinquish. A Boston error by Enmanuel Valdez off Tanner Bibee in the top half of that same inning had briefly offered the Red Sox some life at plus 9.9 points of win probability, but Andrés Giménez grounded into a double play off Bernardino that erased 8.6 points of Cleveland's leverage in the process. The Guardians then extended their cushion in the fifth, when Amed Rosario doubled off Justin Garza for a 12.4-point swing, followed by a José Ramírez double that added another 7.3 points, effectively closing Boston out of the contest.

Naylor finished as the game's top performer by the DiamondIQ model's estimate, contributing plus 18.8 points of win probability and a RE24 of plus 2.3, while Rosario added plus 17.1 points and plus 1.3 RE24. Josh Bell also contributed positively at plus 11.4 points of win probability. On the mound, Bernardino led Cleveland's pitching staff with plus 6.6 points of win probability added, followed by starter Tanner Bibee at plus 5.3 and Sam Hentges at plus 5.0, as the three combined to neutralize Boston's offense after the Red Sox scored their lone runs in the first and fourth innings.