Los Angeles Angels at Houston Astros: Final Score & Recap

The Los Angeles Angels defeated the Houston Astros 2-1 at Minute Maid Park on June 4, 2023, handing Houston a loss despite the DiamondIQ model's pre-game estimate giving the Astros a 62 percent chance of winning at home. The Angels erased that advantage methodically, scoring once in the sixth and once in the eighth to take a lead they would not relinquish. Carlos Estévez closed it out in the ninth, and when Yainer Diaz grounded into a double play to end the game, that sequence added 16.3 percent to the Angels' win probability, sealing the outcome.

The game's most pivotal sequence came in the eighth inning, when Shohei Ohtani doubled off Phil Maton to swing the win probability 22.3 percent in Los Angeles's favor, setting the table for what became the game-winning run. Two innings earlier, Luis Rengifo had provided the Angels their first lead with a home run off J.P. France, a swing worth 13.8 percent in win probability. Houston's lone answer came in the fifth, when Yainer Diaz connected for a solo home run off Griffin Canning, a hit that added 12.4 percent to the Astros' chances. Alex Bregman's flyout off Estévez in the eighth, swinging 12.9 percent back toward Los Angeles, represented Houston's last credible threat to retake control.

In terms of individual performance by the DiamondIQ model's accounting, Diaz led all batters with a cumulative WPA of plus-34.6 percent and a RE24 of plus-0.6, a figure elevated almost entirely by his fifth-inning home run against a game his team ultimately lost. Ohtani finished at plus-18.0 percent WPA and plus-0.5 RE24, while Rengifo contributed plus-6.0 percent WPA and plus-0.5 RE24. On the pitching side, Griffin Canning led the staff at plus-21.5 percent WPA despite allowing the Diaz homer, with Chris Devenski at plus-18.7 percent and France, pitching for Houston, credited with plus-17.8 percent despite surrendering the Rengifo home run.