Colorado Rockies at Arizona Diamondbacks: Final Score & Recap

The Arizona Diamondbacks walked off the Colorado Rockies 5-4 on June 1, 2023, at Chase Field, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate entering the game placing Arizona at a 71% win probability that ultimately climbed to 100% by the final out. The game was knotted in a back-and-forth exchange through the middle innings before a dramatic ninth inning settled matters for good.

The decisive moment came in the bottom of the ninth when Corbin Carroll lined a walk-off double off Pierce Johnson, a swing that shifted win probability by 78.8 percentage points and sealed the Arizona victory. It was the single largest win-probability play of the game by a wide margin. Earlier, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. had contributed a double off Jake Bird in the sixth inning that added 19.4% in win probability, and Ketel Marte followed with a double off Brad Hand in the seventh worth 18.2% as Arizona continued to apply pressure. Colorado's brightest moment came in the top of the seventh when Ezequiel Tovar launched a home run off Kyle Nelson, a swing worth plus 13.4% in win probability that temporarily kept the Rockies within striking distance. A Geraldo Perdomo strikeout against Justin Lawrence in the eighth briefly swung momentum back toward Colorado, costing Arizona 12.9 percentage points at a critical juncture.

Among position players, Carroll finished as the top performer with a cumulative WPA of plus 60.3% and an RE24 of plus 0.6, while Marte contributed plus 31.6% WPA and led all batters with a plus 1.5 RE24. Tovar paced Colorado with a plus 15.5% WPA. On the mound, Connor Seabold led all pitchers with a plus 36.1% WPA, and Lawrence added plus 29.7% despite the eighth-inning damage his strikeout of Perdomo briefly undid. The model leans toward crediting Carroll's ninth-inning double as the singular play that defined the outcome.