MLB Recap · May 29, 2023

Texas Rangers at Detroit Tigers: Final Score & Recap

TEX5
Final
DET0

Line Score

Team123456789RHE
TEX0000302005100
DET000000000051

The Story

The Texas Rangers shutout the Detroit Tigers 5-0 at Comerica Park on May 29, 2023, holding Detroit scoreless through all nine innings while the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a Detroit win fell from 38 percent before first pitch to zero percent by the final out. Texas generated all five of its runs in two bursts, keeping the game quiet through the first four frames before breaking it open decisively in the fifth.

The decisive moment came in the top of the fifth inning when Corey Seager connected on a home run off Matthew Boyd, a swing that shifted win probability by plus-31.1 percent in Texas's favor and effectively ended any realistic path to a Detroit comeback. Seager finished as the game's top performer by a wide margin, posting a WPA of plus-32.1 percent and a RE24 of plus-2.9. The Rangers added two more runs in the seventh to set the final margin at five. On the Detroit side, the most damaging offensive moments came earlier, with Andy Ibáñez grounding into a double play in the bottom of the second at a cost of minus-7.7 percent win probability against Nathan Eovaldi, and Texas's own Jonah Heim failing to capitalize in the second and fourth innings, strikeouts and pop outs off Boyd each chipping away at Ranger opportunities before Seager made them irrelevant.

Nathan Eovaldi was the standout on the mound, contributing plus-15.1 percent WPA while limiting Detroit to five hits and the one error that marred the home side's defense. Brock Burke added plus-6.0 percent WPA in relief, and Jonathan Hernández contributed plus-1.7 percent to close things out cleanly. Robbie Grossman and Josh Jung each provided modest offensive support for Texas, with Grossman drawing a key walk in the fifth ahead of Seager's home run for a WPA of plus-3.4 percent and Jung finishing at plus-3.0 percent. The DiamondIQ model leaned toward Texas throughout the evening once Seager's bat put the game away in the fifth.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025TEX bats firstFinalDET win %TEX win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 37.8% → final 0%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Corey Seager Home Run
Top 5th · off Matthew Boyd
+31.1%
Andy Ibáñez Grounded Into DP
Bot 2nd · off Nathan Eovaldi
-7.7%
Jonah Heim Strikeout
Top 2nd · off Matthew Boyd
-6.9%
Jonah Heim Pop Out
Top 4th · off Matthew Boyd
-5.1%
Top 5th · off Matthew Boyd
+4.5%

Top Batters by WPA

Corey Seager+32.1%+2.9 RE24
Robbie Grossman+3.4%+0.2 RE24
Josh Jung+3.0%+0.1 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

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