Houston Astros at Milwaukee Brewers: Final Score & Recap

The Milwaukee Brewers defeated the Houston Astros 4-0 on May 24, 2023, at American Family Field, holding Houston scoreless across nine innings while scoring all of their runs in the first and seventh innings. The DiamondIQ model opened with a 52 percent home win probability for Milwaukee and closed at 100 percent, reflecting a game that gradually slipped away from Houston despite a moment in the sixth inning that briefly suggested a rally.

That sixth-inning sequence captured the game's central tension. Alex Bregman opened the top half with a double off Adrian Houser that added 10.9 percent to Houston's win probability, the single largest positive swing of the night for the Astros. But the threat dissolved immediately, as Yordan Alvarez struck out against Joel Payamps, costing Houston 9.9 percent in win probability, and Kyle Tucker followed with a lineout that shed another 8.0 percent. Payamps absorbed a dangerous situation and neutralized it entirely, finishing as the game's top pitching performer by WPA at plus 17.9 percent. Houser contributed plus 13.4 percent of his own, and Bryse Wilson added another 7.2 percent to close out Milwaukee's collective shutdown effort.

Owen Miller's home run off Brandon Bielak in the bottom of the seventh was the most impactful offensive play of the game for Milwaukee, generating a 7.4 percent win-probability swing and extending what had been a 2-0 lead. Among position players, Bregman led all batters at plus 9.2 percent WPA despite being stranded, while William Contreras posted plus 4.7 percent for Milwaukee. Houston managed four hits and committed no errors but could not convert any of their baserunners into runs, leaving the Brewers with a clean 4-0 final.