Texas Rangers at Chicago Cubs: Final Score & Recap

The Chicago Cubs shut out the Texas Rangers 2-0 at Wrigley Field on April 7, 2023, with Marcus Stroman and the Cubs bullpen combining to hold Texas to three hits across nine innings. The DiamondIQ model opened the game with a 54 percent home win probability and closed it at 100 percent as Chicago's pitching staff never allowed the Rangers a serious threat.

The game's decisive sequence came in the middle innings, where the margin between a different outcome and the final score was razor thin. In the bottom of the fourth, Cody Bellinger delivered a single off Nathan Eovaldi that shifted win probability by plus 10.6 percent in Chicago's favor, providing the game's first run. The Rangers had a chance to respond in the top of the sixth, but Josh Jung's groundout off Stroman swung win probability 11.5 percent against Texas, extinguishing what had been the Rangers' best opportunity to get on the board. Ian Happ then answered in the bottom half of the inning with a double off Eovaldi that moved the needle another 11.3 percent toward Chicago and pushed the Cubs' lead to two runs. Dansby Swanson's groundout into a double play in that same sixth-inning rally kept the Cubs from extending further, but the damage was done.

Stroman was the game's most dominant individual performer by the DiamondIQ model's estimate, generating plus 27.6 percent win probability added over his outing. Michael Fulmer added plus 14.4 percent and Mark Leiter Jr. contributed plus 7.2 percent to complete the shutout from the bullpen. Among hitters, Happ led all batters at plus 9.8 percent WPA with a plus 0.6 RE24, followed by Nico Hoerner at plus 6.4 percent and Bellinger at plus 6.3 percent. Marcus Semien's ground into a double play in the third inning, which cost Texas 8.0 percent in win probability off Stroman, summarized a night in which the Rangers could find no way through a Cubs staff that was firmly in control from the opening pitch.